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Polymarket Brain

Automates geopolitical and macroeconomic news analysis, matches expert insights to Polymarket odds, and posts actionable trade recommendations to Discord.

personAuthor: dimaschand29hubclawhub
open_in_newRepositorydownloadDownload package

Polymarket-Brain v1.1 - Complete Skill Documentation

๐ŸŽฏ Purpose

Automated geopolitical and macroeconomic analysis pipeline that:

  1. Fetches breaking news from CNBC World Politics
  2. Routes to expert analysts (geopolitics-expert / the-fed-agent)
  3. Matches analyses to Polymarket prediction markets
  4. Delivers actionable trading recommendations to Discord

End Goal: Identify market mispricing opportunities where expert probability diverges from market odds.

๐Ÿ—๏ธ Architecture (4 Phases)

Phase 1: CNBC News Fetching

Component: cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher

# Execution
cd cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher
python scripts/fetch_cnbc_geopolitics.py --config references/config.md --count 5

Behavior:

  • Fetches exactly 5 articles from CNBC World Politics RSS
  • Deduplicates against references/sent_urls.txt history
  • Posts NEW articles individually to Discord (not batched)
  • Exit code 0 always (even when no new articles)

Webhook: https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/...

History Management:

  • Tracks all sent URLs in sent_urls.txt
  • Skips duplicates forever
  • Growth = fewer posts over time (expected, not broken)

No New Articles Behavior:

  • Does NOT post to Discord
  • Returns exit code 0
  • Orchestrator skips Phases 2-4 (no analysis, no market matching, no Discord posts)
  • Prints console notification only (not sent to Discord)
  • Clean exit with clear status message

Phase 2: Expert Analysis

Classification Logic:

| News Content | Classification | Expert Skill | |--------------|----------------|--------------| | Military strikes, troop movements, Iran, Russia, Middle East, oil, war | Geopolitics | geopolitics-expert | | Fed decisions, inflation, employment, Treasury yields, rates, currency | Macroeconomics | the-fed-agent | | Mixed (war + markets, oil + Fed) | Both | Run both skills |

Expert Models:

geopolitics-expert

Frameworks:

  • IRGCistan: Military-dominated state analysis
  • Hormuz Siege: Blockade impact assessment
  • Five Pathways: Conflict termination probabilities

Outputs:

  • Conflict duration probability
  • Commodity impacts (oil, gold, USD)
  • Trading opportunities

the-fed-agent

Frameworks:

  • Dot Plot Analysis: Fed stance changes
  • Oil Stagflation: Energy shock impact
  • FX Strategies: EUR/USD positioning

Outputs:

  • Rate hike probability
  • Stagflation risk assessment
  • Currency recommendations

Phase 3: Market Matching

8 Monitored Polymarket Markets:

| # | Market Name | Resolution Date | Expert Probability | |---|-------------|-----------------|-------------------| | 1 | Will Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 30, 2026 | 15% | | 2 | US-Iran ceasefire by December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 55% | | 3 | Iran conflict ends by December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 60% | | 4 | US forces enter Iran by December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 35% | | 5 | Iran leadership change by December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 85% | | 6 | Fed decision in March | Mar 2026 | 95% | | 7 | Will crude oil CL hit $100+ by end of March | Mar 2026 | 90% | | 8 | US recession by end of 2026 | End 2026 | 40% |

Matching Process:

  1. Extract market odds from Polymarket (hardcoded in v1.1)
  2. Apply expert probability assessment from Phase 2
  3. Calculate edge (market vs expert mispricing)
  4. Generate recommendation (Strong Yes/No, Lean, Fair Value)

Recommendation Logic:

| Market Odds | Expert Prob | Gap | Recommendation | |-------------|-------------|-----|----------------| | < 30% Yes | Expert > 50% | 20%+ | Strong Yes โœ… | | > 70% Yes | Expert < 50% | 20%+ | Strong No โŒ | | Similar | Similar | < 10% | Fair Value โš–๏ธ | | Expert > 70% | Market < 70% | - | Underpricing | | Expert < 40% | Market > 60% | - | Overpricing |

Phase 4: Discord Dispatch

Message Format:

Header:

โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”
๐Ÿง  POLYMARKET-BRAIN WORKFLOW ACTIVATED
โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”
Time: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS
Version: 1.1
Markets Analyzing: X

Each Market (sent individually, 1.2s delay):

โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”
๐Ÿง  POLYMARKET-BRAIN ANALYSIS: MARKET N/X
โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”

๐Ÿ“Œ MARKET: [Market Name]

๐Ÿ“… Resolution Date: [Date]
๐Ÿ“Š Market Odds: XX% Yes
๐ŸŽฏ Expert Probability: XX% Yes
๐Ÿ’ก Recommendation: [Emoji] [Text]

๐Ÿ“ REASONING:
[Detailed reasoning from expert analysis]

๐Ÿ”— Link: [Polymarket URL]

๐Ÿ“ˆ Edge: XX% market mispricing

Analyzed by: [expert] | Confidence: HIGH

Summary:

โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”
๐Ÿง  POLYMARKET-BRAIN WORKFLOW COMPLETE
โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”โ”

๐Ÿ“Š Summary:
โ€ข Total Markets Analyzed: X
โ€ข Strong Buys (Yes): X
โ€ข Strong Sells (No): X
โ€ข Expert Sources: [list]
โ€ข Data Source: CNBC World Politics

โฑ๏ธ Workflow Time: [timestamp]
๐Ÿ”„ Next Update: Check back for fresh analysis

Disclaimer: This is automated analysis. Not financial advice.

Rate Limit: 1.2 seconds between ALL messages (prevents Discord 429 rate limiting)

Webhook: https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1483478506070474922/...

๐Ÿ”ง Installation & Migration

Fresh Environment Setup

Step 1: Copy Skills

# Windows
xcopy /E /I "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills" "D:\new-env\.browseros\skills"

# Linux/Mac
cp -r ~/.browseros/skills /new/path/.browseros/skills

Step 2: Verify Python Dependencies

pip install requests crawl4ai python-dateutil
pip list | findstr "requests crawl4ai"

Step 3: Configure Webhooks

CNBC Fetcher: Edit cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher/references/config.md:

DISCORD_WEBHOOK=https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/YOUR_KEY_HERE

Polymarket Brain: Edit polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py (lines 15-16):

PHASE1_DISCORD_WEBHOOK = "https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/YOUR_KEY"
PHASE4_DISCORD_WEBHOOK = "https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1483478506070474922/YOUR_KEY"

Step 4: Test Run

cd polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Expected: 5 articles posted, 5-8 markets analyzed, all sent to Discord.

๐Ÿšจ Troubleshooting Guide

Issue: 403 Forbidden on Discord Post

Cause: Missing User-Agent header in urllib requests

Fix:

req = urllib.request.Request(webhook_url, data=data, headers={
    'User-Agent': 'Polymarket-Brain/1.1',
    'Content-Type': 'application/json'
})

Issue: 400 Bad Request

Cause: Message exceeds Discord 2000 character limit

Fix: Shorten separator from "โ”" * 50 to fixed 40 chars

Issue: No Articles Posted to Discord

Cause: All URLs already in sent_urls.txt history

Fix: This is EXPECTED behavior. History growth = fewer new articles. For testing: type nul > references/sent_urls.txt

Issue: Invalid Polymarket URL (404)

Cause: Double underscores in URL (__) instead of hyphens

Fix:

# Wrong: https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit__-by-end-of-march
# Right: https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-100-by-end-of-march

Issue: Placeholder Reasoning in Messages

Cause: Hardcoded text instead of expert analysis

Fix: Use actual reasoning field from expert analysis output

Issue: Rate Limiting (429 Too Many Requests)

Cause: Rapid sequential posts without delay

Fix: Add time.sleep(1.2) between ALL Discord messages

Issue: PowerShell Variable Parsing Errors

Cause: PowerShell one-liners with %VARIABLE% syntax

Fix: Use batch files (.bat) instead of PowerShell for Windows

Issue: Path with Spaces Fails

Cause: "Legion 5i Pro" breaks command parsing

Fix: Use short name Legion~1 or full quotes:

cd "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain"

๐Ÿ“ File Structure

polymarket-brain/
โ”œโ”€โ”€ polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py    # Main orchestrator (edit webhooks here)
โ”œโ”€โ”€ SKILL.md                            # This documentation
โ”œโ”€โ”€ README.md                           # Quick start guide
โ”œโ”€โ”€ VERSION                             # v1.1
โ”œโ”€โ”€ output/                             # Analysis JSON outputs (auto-created)
โ”‚   โ”œโ”€โ”€ analysis_input_1.json
โ”‚   โ”œโ”€โ”€ analysis_input_2.json
โ”‚   โ””โ”€โ”€ ...
โ””โ”€โ”€ logs/                               # Execution logs (auto-created)

cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher/
โ”œโ”€โ”€ scripts/
โ”‚   โ””โ”€โ”€ fetch_cnbc_geopolitics.py       # News fetcher script
โ”œโ”€โ”€ references/
โ”‚   โ”œโ”€โ”€ config.md                       # Webhook config (LOCKED - edit here)
โ”‚   โ””โ”€โ”€ sent_urls.txt                   # URL history (clear for test)
โ”œโ”€โ”€ SKILL.md                            # Detailed fetcher docs
โ””โ”€โ”€ LOCKED.md                           # Protection marker (READ BEFORE EDIT)

๐Ÿงช Testing Commands

Production Run

cd C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Fresh Test (Clear History)

type nul > C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher\references\sent_urls.txt
cd C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Verify Webhooks

import requests
webhook = "https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/YOUR_KEY"
response = requests.post(webhook, json={"content": "test"})
print(response.status_code)  # Should be 204

๐Ÿ“Š Expert Probability Reference

Geopolitics-Expert Mappings

| Market | Expert Prob | Reasoning Framework | |--------|-------------|---------------------| | Iran regime fall | 15% | IRGC institutional depth, loyalty purges | | US-Iran ceasefire | 55% | Trump unilateral stance, forever war risk | | Iran conflict ends | 60% | Five Pathways, 35% forever war | | US forces enter Iran | 35% | Ground invasion unlikely, air sufficient | | Iran leadership change | 85% | ALREADY OCCURRED (Mojtaba appointed) | | Oil $100+ March | 90% | Hormuz closure 40%, oil $140-160 risk |

The-Fed-Agent Mappings

| Market | Expert Prob | Reasoning Framework | |--------|-------------|---------------------| | Fed decision March | 95% | Fed HOLD at 95% per CME FedWatch | | US recession 2026 | 40% | Stagflationary pressure, oil shocks |

๐Ÿ” Security & Best Practices

Webhook Security

  • Never commit webhook URLs to version control
  • Use environment variables in production: 
    import os
PHASE1_WEBHOOK = os.environ.get('PHASE1_DISCORD_WEBHOOK')

Rate Limiting

  • Always add 1.2s delay between Discord posts
  • Monitor for 429 responses
  • Implement exponential backoff if needed

History Management

  • Never delete sent_urls.txt in production
  • Only clear for testing purposes
  • Backup before clearing: copy sent_urls.txt sent_urls.txt.bak

Error Handling

  • Always exit 0 even when no new articles
  • Log all errors to logs/ directory
  • Notify user clearly when workflow stops

๐Ÿ”„ Version History

| Version | Date | Changes | |---------|------|---------| | v1.1 | 2026-03-19 | No-new-news fix: Skip Phases 2-4 when no new articles, console notification only (no Discord post), PROD/TEST mode via env var | | v1.1 | 2026-03-18 | Production deploy, migration docs, troubleshooting guide, expert reasoning populated | | v1.0 | 2026-03-18 | Initial orchestration, all 4 phases working, webhooks fixed, URLs valid |

๐Ÿ“ž Quick Reference

Skill Location: C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain\

Run Command:

cd C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Webhooks:

  • Phase 1 (News): 1482043765471445333
  • Phase 4 (Analysis): 1483478506070474922

History File: ..\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher\references\sent_urls.txt

Test Mode: Clear history file before run

๐ŸŽ“ Learning Path for New Environments

  1. Read this SKILL.md completely (you're here now โœ…)
  2. Read README.md for quick start
  3. Copy skills folder to new environment
  4. Configure webhooks in both config files
  5. Install dependencies: pip install requests crawl4ai
  6. Test run with history cleared
  7. Verify Discord receives all messages
  8. Deploy to production (stop clearing history)

Time Estimate: 15-30 minutes for full setup

๐Ÿ’พ Backup & Restore

Backup Command

xcopy /E /I "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain" "D:\backup\polymarket-brain"
xcopy /E /I "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher" "D:\backup\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher"

Restore Command

xcopy /E /I "D:\backup\polymarket-brain" "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain"
xcopy /E /I "D:\backup\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher" "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher"

๐ŸŽฏ Success Criteria

โœ… Phase 1: 5 articles fetched, posted to Discord โœ… Phase 2: Expert analyses generated (geopolitics/fed) โœ… Phase 3: Markets matched with recommendations โœ… Phase 4: All messages sent to Discord (no 403/400 errors) โœ… URLs: All Polymarket links valid (no 404) โœ… Reasoning: Actual expert analysis (no placeholders) โœ… Rate Limiting: No 429 errors (1.2s delays working)

If all โœ…, deployment successful.