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Polymarket Edge Trader

Trades the highest-edge active AION Polymarket market matching a query using a user-supplied fair probability, AION context safeguards, and Kelly-style sizing.

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Polymarket Edge Trader

This is a template. The default signal is a user-supplied fair YES probability for markets matching MARKET_QUERY — remix it with your own model output, external API, or ML prediction. The skill handles all the plumbing: market discovery, context safeguards, position sizing, trade execution, operator summaries, auto-redemption, and AION trade tagging. Your job is to provide the alpha.

Setup

Install the AION SDK:

pip install aionmarket-sdk

Key Safeguards (Built-In)

  • Risk Alerts Guard: Skips new entries if briefing reports active risk alerts; runs de-risk logic instead.
  • Flip-Flop Detection: Rejects markets with excessive trading reversals or discipline warnings from context.
  • Slippage Enforcement: Enforces maximum estimated slippage threshold before showing candidates.
  • Market Context Check: Fetches warnings, edge analysis, and trading discipline from AION API; skips if risk detected.
  • Kelly Sizing: Uses Kelly-fraction bankroll model with configurable multiplier (AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER) for position control.
  • Auto-Redeem: Automatically claims payouts from resolved markets at each cycle start.
  • Dry-Run Default: Only submits live orders when --live is explicitly passed with signed order payload.
  • Public Reasoning: Every trade includes reasoning tied to edge signal, market state, and risk metrics.
  • Jitter Polling: Daemon mode (--daemon) uses randomized wait intervals to avoid synchronized order bursts.

What It Does

  • Scans active AION Polymarket markets matching MARKET_QUERY
  • Scores each candidate against MODEL_PROBABILITY
  • Picks the market with the largest absolute edge
  • Skips trades when edge is too small, slippage is too high, briefing risk alerts are active, or AION warns about flip-flopping
  • Sizes the position with a Kelly-style bankroll model
  • Prints an operator summary with risk state, decisions, and order updates
  • Executes through AionMarketClient.trade() when you explicitly provide --live and a signed order payload

Defaults

  • MARKET_QUERY=bitcoin
  • MODEL_PROBABILITY=0.60
  • TARGET_VENUE=polymarket
  • MAX_MARKETS=25
  • MAX_STAKE_USD=50
  • MIN_EDGE=0.03
  • MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT=0.15
  • STARTING_BALANCE_USD=1000
  • AION_BASE_URL=https://pm-t1.bxingupdate.com/bvapi
  • AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER=0.25
  • AION_MIN_EV=0.03
  • WALLET_ADDRESS=
  • AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON=

How To Run

Dry-run mode (default — no orders submitted):

python edge_trader.py

Scan a different market with custom probability:

python edge_trader.py --query "fed" --probability 0.64

Show ranked candidates before selecting best:

python edge_trader.py --show-candidates

Daemon mode with jitter (for cron/automaton orchestration):

python edge_trader.py --daemon --poll-interval 60

Live trading (requires --live, wallet address, and pre-signed order JSON):

WALLET_ADDRESS=0xYourWallet \
AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON='{"maker":"...","signer":"...","taker":"0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000","tokenId":"...","makerAmount":"...","takerAmount":"...","side":"BUY","expiration":"...","signature":"...","salt":"...","signatureType":0,"nonce":"...","feeRateBps":"0"}' \
python edge_trader.py --query "bitcoin" --probability 0.58 --live

Required Credentials

  • AION_API_KEY is always required
  • WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is optional and only needed for self-custody Polymarket trading
  • WALLET_ADDRESS is required for user-scoped briefing and live order submission
  • AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON is only required for live order submission, because the AION SDK expects a complete signed order payload

Remix Ideas

The skill's plumbing is fixed (safeguards, sizing, execution, summaries). Your alpha is:

Signal replacement:

  • Replace MODEL_PROBABILITY with your own ML model output, external API call, or ensemble forecast.
  • Swap discover_markets() for briefing.opportunityMarkets (pre-curated high-quality markets).
  • Integrate a multi-model ensemble: call multiple probability endpoints and aggregate them.
  • Use sentiment analysis, weather data, or on-chain metrics to derive fair probability.

Advanced position management:

  • Add sell logic: close existing positions when signal flips.
  • Implement rebalance logic around target portfolio weights.
  • Use get_bankroll() to scale position size dynamically with account growth.
  • Add staggered entry: split Kelly fraction across multiple limit orders at different prices.

Extended safeguards:

  • Tighten MIN_EDGE for high-frequency strategies; relax for lower-frequency.
  • Add custom risk filters: skip markets with high volatility, thin liquidity, or specific conditions.
  • Extend auto-redeem to other venues (Kalshi, etc.) by removing venue checks.
  • Integrate external alerts: pause trading if certain conditions are met from other systems.

Operational tweaks:

  • Adjust AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER for more conservative or aggressive sizing.
  • Use --max-slippage-pct and MAX_STAKE_USD as dynamic parameters from a config file.
  • Add custom telemetry: log trade decisions to your own database or reporting system.
  • Build a CLI wrapper that spins up multiple skill instances with different queries.