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Polymarket Micro Session Edge Trader

Trades session-transition mean-reversion in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets on Polymarket, fading directional bursts that occur during US, Asia, and Eur...

personAuthor: diagnostikonhubclawhub
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Micro Session Edge Trader

This is a template. The default signal is session-transition burst detection and mean-reversion in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets -- remix it with additional session models, volume overlays, or cross-asset filters. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, interval parsing, session detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Crypto markets trade 24/7, but liquidity and volatility are not evenly distributed. Three key session transitions create predictable volatility bursts in Polymarket's 5-minute "Up or Down" markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP):

  • US_OPEN (9:30-10:00 ET): NYSE opens, institutional flow hits crypto
  • ASIA_OPEN (20:00-20:30 ET): Tokyo/Hong Kong come online
  • EU_OPEN (3:00-3:30 ET): London session begins

The first 2 five-minute intervals after a session open tend to move directionally (the "burst"). The 3rd interval frequently reverts as the initial impulse fades and mean-reversion kicks in. The skill detects confirmed bursts and trades the fade.

Example: US_OPEN session, BTC markets:

| Interval | Time | Direction | Probability | |----------|------|-----------|-------------| | 1st | 9:30-9:35 | Up | 62% | | 2nd | 9:35-9:40 | Up | 65% | | 3rd (fade target) | 9:40-9:45 | Up | 58% |

Burst confirmed: 2 consecutive Up intervals (avg 63.5%). Fade: sell NO on the 3rd interval (bet it reverts Down). Conviction = (0.58 - 0.48) / 0.30 = 0.33, burst_strength boost = (0.635 - 0.55) / 0.45 = 0.19, combined = min(1.0, 0.33 + 0.3 * 0.19) = 0.39, size = max($2, 0.39 * $10) = $3.87.

Edge

Session transitions are the most volatile periods in any market. In crypto, where 24/7 trading means no single "close" to anchor overnight risk, the US, Asia, and Europe opens create mini-opens with predictable burst-then-revert patterns. Institutional flow arrives in waves creating directional pressure that overshoots. Retail 5-minute market participants pile into the burst direction, pushing prices past fair value. After the initial burst, market makers and contrarian flow bring prices back toward equilibrium. Polymarket's 5-minute interval markets are priced by retail participants who chase the burst direction, creating a systematic overshoot that reverts within 1-2 intervals. The timing is predictable -- session opens happen at the same time every day.

Signal Logic

  1. Discover all crypto "Up or Down" 5-minute markets via keyword search (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP)
  2. Parse each question: extract asset, date, start time, end time (as minutes since midnight ET)
  3. Group intervals by (asset, date), sort chronologically
  4. For each session window (US_OPEN 9:30-10:00, ASIA_OPEN 20:00-20:30, EU_OPEN 3:00-3:30):
    • Find intervals whose start time falls within the window
    • Check if first 2 intervals show same directional bias (both Up or both Down)
    • If confirmed burst: the 3rd interval (or first after window) is the fade target
  5. Fade direction is opposite to burst: up-burst -> sell NO, down-burst -> buy YES
  6. Filter out past intervals (only trade upcoming/current based on ET clock)
  7. Conviction scales with threshold distance + burst strength boost (how extreme the burst average was)
  8. Size by conviction, not flat amount -- micro sizing (MAX_POSITION=10)

Remix Signal Ideas

  • Volume confirmation: Only trade fades when the burst intervals had above-average Polymarket volume
  • Multi-session confluence: Weight fades higher when 2+ session windows overlap or when multiple coins burst simultaneously
  • Exchange correlation feed: Pull real-time BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP prices from Binance to confirm the on-chain momentum matches Polymarket burst
  • Adaptive windows: Dynamically adjust session window boundaries based on historical burst timing data

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |---|---|---| | python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |---|---|---| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |---|---|---| | SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 10 | Max USDC per trade at full conviction (micro) | | SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 2 | Floor for any trade | | SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 1000 | Min market volume filter (USD) | | SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.12 | Max bid-ask spread | | SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 15 | Max concurrent open positions | | SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.42 | Buy YES only if market probability <= this | | SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.58 | Sell NO only if market probability >= this | | SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 0 | Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

  • PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
  • GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk