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Polymarket Sol Momentum

Trades Polymarket crypto prediction markets (Solana, Bitcoin, Ethereum) using CoinGecko momentum signals. Buys YES when bullish markets are underpriced vs pr...

personAuthor: choklehubclawhub
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SOL/Crypto Momentum Trader 🔮

Scans Polymarket for Solana, Bitcoin, and Ethereum prediction markets where the current market price diverges from CoinGecko momentum signals — and trades the gap.

This is a template. The default signal is CoinGecko 24h/7d price change — remix it with your own price feed, CEX funding rates, on-chain data, or any directional signal. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, edge scoring, context checks, trade execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy

  1. Fetch 24h and 7d price change for SOL, BTC, ETH from CoinGecko (free, no API key needed)
  2. Compute a directional momentum signal: weighted blend of 24h (60%) and 7d (40%) change, normalized to ±1 at ±20% move
  3. Scan active Polymarket markets matching solana, bitcoin, ethereum, crypto
  4. Detect whether each market's question is bullish or bearish framing
  5. Score divergence: edge = |expected_prob − market_prob|
  6. Buy YES or NO on markets where edge exceeds threshold (default 8%)
  7. Check Simmer context before each trade — skip on flip-flop warnings, high slippage, or HOLD recommendation
  8. Tag all trades with skill_slug for per-skill volume attribution on Simmer

Requirements

  • SIMMER_API_KEY — your Simmer agent API key
  • simmer-sdk — installed via pip (see clawhub.json)
  • requests — for CoinGecko API calls
  • No CoinGecko API key needed (free public endpoint)

Configuration

All config via environment variables — no code edits needed:

| Variable | Default | Description | |----------|---------|-------------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | required | Your Simmer agent API key | | TRADING_VENUE | sim | sim (paper), polymarket (real USDC), kalshi (real USD) | | TRADE_AMOUNT_USD | 10.0 | USD per trade | | DIVERGENCE_THRESHOLD | 0.08 | Min edge to trade (8% = 0.08) | | MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per cron cycle |

Running

# Install dependencies
pip install simmer-sdk requests

# Dry run (default — no real trades)
python strategy.py

# Live trading
python strategy.py --live

The script defaults to dry-run mode. Pass --live explicitly to execute real trades. When run via ClawHub automaton, set TRADING_VENUE=polymarket (or sim) in your environment — the --live flag is handled automatically by the automaton entrypoint.

Remix Ideas

Swap the signal source:

  • Replace CoinGecko with Binance/Bybit REST API for real-time price + funding rate
  • Use on-chain Solana data (epoch rewards, validator stake changes) as a signal
  • Pull sentiment from Twitter/Reddit via a simple keyword count API

Tune the strategy:

  • Lower DIVERGENCE_THRESHOLD to 5% to trade more aggressively
  • Increase TRADE_AMOUNT_USD once you've validated edge on Simmer ($SIM)
  • Add a volume filter to skip illiquid markets

Extend asset coverage:

  • Add "sui", "bnb", "matic" to the COINGECKO_IDS mapping
  • Point at Kalshi crypto markets: set venue="kalshi" and import markets first

Layer signals:

  • Run the script twice per cycle with different signals, average the outputs
  • Add a momentum confirmation filter (only trade if 1h and 24h align)

Safety Rails

Built-in safeguards (via Simmer context endpoint):

  • Flip-flop detection — skips markets where your agent has been reversing positions
  • Slippage check — skips markets where estimated slippage > 15%
  • Edge analysis — respects HOLD recommendations from Simmer's context engine
  • Simmer default limits — $100/trade, $500/day, 50 trades/day (configurable via dashboard)

Volume Attribution

All trades are tagged with source="sdk:polymarket-sol-momentum" and skill_slug="polymarket-sol-momentum". This attributes trade volume to this skill on Simmer and qualifies for the 2% creator fee on LMSR markets you've imported.

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