Reasoning Orchestrator

CRITICAL: This skill does NOT perform any reasoning itself. It plans and delegates. All reasoning is done by reading and applying individual skill files, or by spawning subagents. Do not shortcut by reasoning inline.

How to Execute This Skill

Follow these steps exactly, in order. Do not skip or collapse steps.

STEP 1 — Triage (no skill file needed)

Classify the situation across these dimensions and write the classification before proceeding:

Temporal direction: Forward-looking / Present-state / Backward-looking

Problem maturity:

Unframed — problem itself may not be correctly defined
Framed, unsolved — problem understood, solution not found
Solved, needs validation — solution exists, needs stress-testing
Decided, needs learning — something happened, extract signal

Primary obstacle:

Don't understand the system → diagnostic track
Understand it, stuck on solutions → generative track
Have solutions, need to choose → convergence track
Something went wrong → retrospective track
About to commit to something → adversarial track
Don't know what we don't know → epistemic track
Incentives misaligned / need to design rules → strategic track

Domain complexity (if unclear, assign unknown and include cynefin-framework in Step 2): Clear / Complicated / Complex / Chaotic / Unknown

Write the triage output:

TRIAGE
Temporal: [forward / present / backward]
Maturity: [label]
Obstacle: [label] → [track]
Domain: [label]

STEP 2 — Build the Execution Plan (no skill file needed)

Using the triage and the routing table, produce a numbered execution plan. Label each step SEQUENTIAL or PARALLEL. Do not execute yet.

Routing table — entry points by obstacle:

| Obstacle | Execution plan | |----------|---------------| | Don't know what we're dealing with | PARALLEL: epistemic-mapping ∥ cynefin-framework ∥ cognitive-bias-detection → re-triage | | Don't understand the system / why it's failing | PARALLEL: system-thinking ∥ theory-of-constraints → SEQUENTIAL: five-whys-root-cause → decision-synthesis | | Don't understand the system / strategic agents involved | PARALLEL: system-thinking ∥ game-theoretic-analysis → SEQUENTIAL: five-whys-root-cause → decision-synthesis | | Plan / design needs validation | PARALLEL: inversion-premortem ∥ red-teaming ∥ second-order-thinking → SEQUENTIAL: cognitive-bias-detection → decision-synthesis | | Scaling / trajectory / "what if we push this?" | SEQUENTIAL: limit-thinking → PARALLEL: second-order-thinking ∥ scenario-planning → decision-synthesis | | Stuck, all solutions feel the same | SEQUENTIAL: epistemic-mapping → PARALLEL: lateral-thinking ∥ analogical-thinking ∥ first-principles-thinking → SEQUENTIAL: inversion-premortem → decision-synthesis | | Need to decide between options | PARALLEL: scenario-planning ∥ probabilistic-thinking ∥ fermi-estimation → decision-synthesis | | Something went wrong / post-mortem | SEQUENTIAL: retrospective-counterfactual → PARALLEL: five-whys-root-cause ∥ epistemic-mapping → SEQUENTIAL: cognitive-bias-detection | | Long-term strategic commitment | PARALLEL: epistemic-mapping ∥ cognitive-bias-detection ∥ cynefin-framework → PARALLEL: scenario-planning ∥ probabilistic-thinking ∥ fermi-estimation → PARALLEL: inversion-premortem ∥ red-teaming ∥ second-order-thinking → SEQUENTIAL: game-theoretic-analysis → decision-synthesis | | Incentives misaligned / need to design rules | SEQUENTIAL: game-theoretic-analysis → PARALLEL: second-order-thinking ∥ red-teaming → decision-synthesis | | Synthesize evidence from multiple sources | SEQUENTIAL: evidence-synthesis → decision-synthesis |

Write the plan:

EXECUTION PLAN
Step 1 — PARALLEL: [skill-a] ∥ [skill-b] ∥ [skill-c]
Step 2 — SEQUENTIAL: [skill-d]
Step 3 — PARALLEL: [skill-e] ∥ [skill-f]
Step 4 — SEQUENTIAL: [skill-g]

STEP 3 — Execute the Plan (step by step, never all at once)

Work through one step at a time.

For a SEQUENTIAL step:

Read the skill file: view: skills/[skill-name]/SKILL.md
Apply the skill to the current problem context, following the methodology exactly
Write the output in the skill's output format

Write the routing decision:

STEP [N] COMPLETE — SEQUENTIAL: [skill-name]
Key finding: [1–2 sentences]
Routing to Step [N+1]: [reason based on finding]

Proceed to next step

For a PARALLEL step:

Spawn one subagent per skill using the Task tool. Each receives:
- Full problem description
- Findings from prior sequential steps
- This instruction: "Read skills/[skill-name]/SKILL.md then apply that skill's full methodology to the problem. Output your findings in that skill's output format. Do not perform other reasoning."
Wait for all subagents to complete

Synthesize their outputs:

SYNTHESIS — Step [N] PARALLEL: [skill-a] ∥ [skill-b] ∥ [skill-c]

Convergent findings (2+ skills agree — higher confidence):
- [finding]

Divergent findings (1 skill only — worth noting):
- [finding] (from [skill])

Contradictions (skills disagree — resolve before proceeding):
- [skill-a] says [X], [skill-b] says [Y] → resolution: [...]

Key inputs for Step [N+1]: [what the next step needs]

Proceed to next step

STEP 4 — Terminate

Stop when:

decision-synthesis has produced a decision with acceptable confidence
The problem is understood well enough to act without further analysis
4+ steps without converging: stop, flag as likely unframed, restart from Step 1 with epistemic-mapping as the only entry point

Write the termination output:

CHAIN COMPLETE
Steps executed: [list with SEQUENTIAL/PARALLEL labels]
Key finding: [1–2 sentences]
Recommended action: [what to do now]

Then propose follow-up skills. Do NOT auto-execute. Common follow-ups:

Decision made → "Want me to write this up? (technical-writing for ADR/RFC, argument-craft to structure the case)"
Plan needed → "Want me to break this into an execution plan? (execution-planning)"
Communication needed → "Want a presentation? (presentation-craft) or draft announcement? (technical-writing)"

Present only relevant follow-ups. If none needed, say so.

Parallelization Reference

Skills within a cluster apply independent lenses and never depend on each other's output.

| Pattern | Skills | Use when | |---------|--------|---------| | P1 — Adversarial | inversion-premortem ∥ red-teaming ∥ second-order-thinking | Validating a plan before commitment | | P2 — Generative | lateral-thinking ∥ analogical-thinking ∥ first-principles-thinking | Stuck, need new options | | P3 — Diagnostic | system-thinking ∥ theory-of-constraints | System failing, need to understand why | | P4 — Uncertainty | scenario-planning ∥ probabilistic-thinking ∥ fermi-estimation | Decision needs quantification | | P5 — Meta-cognitive | epistemic-mapping ∥ cognitive-bias-detection ∥ cynefin-framework | Clean the reasoning environment first | | P6 — Strategic | game-theoretic-analysis ∥ second-order-thinking | Multiple agents with competing incentives |

Post-Step Routing Reference

After completing any step, adjust the plan if findings warrant:

| Completed skill | Finding | Adjust plan to include | |----------------|---------|----------------------| | epistemic-mapping | Dangerous assumptions found | first-principles-thinking (sequential, next) | | cynefin-framework | Domain = Complex | lateral-thinking ∥ scenario-planning (parallel) instead of structured analysis | | cynefin-framework | Domain = Chaotic | Act immediately; retrospective-counterfactual after stabilization | | game-theoretic-analysis | Nash Equilibrium ≠ Pareto Optimum | Mechanism design — decision-synthesis with design constraints | | game-theoretic-analysis | Information asymmetry identified | red-teaming on exploitability (sequential) | | game-theoretic-analysis | Repeated game dynamics | second-order-thinking on reputation effects (sequential) | | system-thinking | Bottleneck identified | theory-of-constraints (sequential) | | five-whys-root-cause | Root cause is causal claim | evidence-synthesis (sequential) | | five-whys-root-cause | Multiple root causes | decision-synthesis (sequential, to prioritize) | | adversarial panel (P1) | High-severity risks | cognitive-bias-detection on the risk analysis (sequential) | | generative panel (P2) | All options weak | epistemic-mapping — frame may be wrong (sequential, restart) | | uncertainty panel (P4) | High uncertainty persists | inversion-premortem on worst-case scenario (sequential) | | limit-thinking | Asymptotic ceiling found | theory-of-constraints to identify the constraint (sequential) | | limit-thinking | Reversal / collapse found | first-principles-thinking — is this the right variable? (sequential) | | limit-thinking | Optimal operating point identified | decision-synthesis (sequential) | | second-order-thinking | Consequence chain suggests trajectory | limit-thinking to trace to the extreme (sequential) | | decision-synthesis | Key assumption too uncertain | epistemic-mapping → validate before committing | | evidence-synthesis | Evidence synthesized, decision needed | decision-synthesis (sequential) | | retrospective-counterfactual | Systemic cause found | system-thinking ∥ five-whys-root-cause (parallel) |

Skill Registry

| Skill | File path | Parallelizes with | |-------|-----------|------------------| | epistemic-mapping | skills/epistemic-mapping/SKILL.md | cynefin-framework, cognitive-bias-detection | | cynefin-framework | skills/cynefin-framework/SKILL.md | epistemic-mapping, cognitive-bias-detection | | system-thinking | skills/system-thinking/SKILL.md | theory-of-constraints | | theory-of-constraints | skills/theory-of-constraints/SKILL.md | system-thinking | | five-whys-root-cause | skills/five-whys-root-cause/SKILL.md | — | | cognitive-bias-detection | skills/cognitive-bias-detection/SKILL.md | epistemic-mapping, cynefin-framework | | inversion-premortem | skills/inversion-premortem/SKILL.md | red-teaming, second-order-thinking | | red-teaming | skills/red-teaming/SKILL.md | inversion-premortem, second-order-thinking | | second-order-thinking | skills/second-order-thinking/SKILL.md | inversion-premortem, red-teaming | | probabilistic-thinking | skills/probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md | scenario-planning, fermi-estimation | | fermi-estimation | skills/fermi-estimation/SKILL.md | probabilistic-thinking, scenario-planning | | scenario-planning | skills/scenario-planning/SKILL.md | probabilistic-thinking, fermi-estimation | | game-theoretic-analysis | skills/game-theoretic-analysis/SKILL.md | second-order-thinking | | limit-thinking | skills/limit-thinking/SKILL.md | second-order-thinking, scenario-planning | | lateral-thinking | skills/lateral-thinking/SKILL.md | analogical-thinking, first-principles-thinking | | analogical-thinking | skills/analogical-thinking/SKILL.md | lateral-thinking, first-principles-thinking | | first-principles-thinking | skills/first-principles-thinking/SKILL.md | lateral-thinking, analogical-thinking | | bisociative-creativity | skills/bisociative-creativity/SKILL.md | standalone | | decision-synthesis | skills/decision-synthesis/SKILL.md | runs after all others | | decision-intelligence | skills/decision-intelligence/SKILL.md | standalone (single-option evaluation) | | retrospective-counterfactual | skills/retrospective-counterfactual/SKILL.md | five-whys-root-cause | | evidence-synthesis | skills/evidence-synthesis/SKILL.md | — |