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Scenario Forecaster

AI-driven event forecasting skill. Collects multi-source data, cross-validates facts, maps future scenarios with probabilities, and delivers actionable recom...

personAuthor: onecore-mehubclawhub
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Scenario Forecaster

Stop guessing. Start forecasting. Let AI systematically map every possible future path and give you a tailored action checklist.

Core Capabilities

| Feature | Description | |---------|-------------| | Multi-source data | News, academic papers, social media sentiment, government reports | | Cross-validation | Verify facts across 2+ independent sources with confidence ratings | | PESTEL analysis | Structured driver identification across 6 dimensions | | Scenario mapping | Generate 3-5 logically self-consistent future paths | | Probability assessment | Bayesian-informed probability estimates per scenario | | Role-based recommendations | Tailored do/don't lists for investors, managers, policymakers |

Execution Protocol

  1. Collect - Gather information from 5 source types
  2. Validate - Cross-check facts, rate confidence
  3. Analyze - Identify drivers using PESTEL framework
  4. Map scenarios - Build paths with triggers and milestones
  5. Assess probability - Assign Bayesian-informed estimates
  6. Recommend - Generate role-specific action checklists

Input Parameters

| Parameter | Type | Default | Description | |-----------|------|---------|-------------| | event_description | string | required | Event or topic to forecast | | time_horizon | string | 6 months | Forecast period | | focus_dimensions | list | Economic, Political, Technological | PESTEL dimensions | | num_paths | int | 3 | Number of scenario paths (3-5) |

Quick Start

Forecast: Impact of Fed rate cuts over 6 months on global tech stocks.
Focus: Economic and Technological dimensions.

Full example in examples/output_fed_rate.md.