Cash Flow Analysis Workflow

This skill provides a structured workflow for cash flow analysis and treasury management using the treasury-specialist agent.

Workflow Overview

The cash flow analysis workflow follows 5 phases:

| Phase | Name | Description | |-------|------|-------------| | 1 | Position Assessment | Establish current cash position | | 2 | Forecasting | Build cash flow forecast | | 3 | Liquidity Analysis | Assess liquidity and runway | | 4 | Risk Identification | Identify cash flow risks | | 5 | Recommendations | Provide actionable guidance |

Phase 1: Position Assessment

MANDATORY: Establish current position before forecasting

Position Requirements

| Item | Description | |------|-------------| | Bank balances | All accounts, same day | | Credit availability | Undrawn facilities | | Restricted cash | Identify any restrictions | | Intercompany | IC positions and netting |

Verification Checklist

| Check | Validation | |-------|------------| | All accounts included | Complete bank list | | Same-day balance | No stale data | | Reconciled | Ties to bank statement | | FX converted | Consistent currency |

Blocker Check

If ANY of these are unclear, STOP and ask:

Current cash position
Credit facility terms
FX rate source for conversion
Restricted cash items

Phase 2: Forecasting

MANDATORY: Build forecast with documented methodology

Forecast Types

| Type | Horizon | Granularity | Use Case | |------|---------|-------------|----------| | 13-Week | 13 weeks | Weekly | Short-term liquidity | | Monthly | 12 months | Monthly | Operating planning | | Annual | 1-5 years | Annual | Strategic planning |

Forecast Components

| Component | Description | |-----------|-------------| | Opening balance | Current position | | Operating receipts | Customer collections, other | | Operating disbursements | Payroll, vendors, other | | Investing | CapEx, acquisitions | | Financing | Debt, equity, dividends | | Closing balance | Calculated position |

Methodology Options

| Method | Description | |--------|-------------| | Receipts/Disbursements | Bottom-up from transactions | | Adjusted Net Income | Top-down from P&L | | Balance Sheet Method | From B/S changes |

Phase 3: Agent Dispatch

Dispatch to specialist with full context

Agent Dispatch

Task tool:
  subagent_type: "ring:treasury-specialist"
  model: "opus"
  prompt: |
    Perform cash flow analysis per these specifications:

    **Current Position**: [from Phase 1]
    **Forecast Type**: [13-week/monthly/annual]
    **Methodology**: [receipts-disbursements/adjusted NI]

    **Data Provided**:
    - Bank balances as of [date]
    - Credit facility details
    - AR aging
    - AP aging
    - Payroll schedule
    - Known commitments

    **Required Output**:
    - Current position summary
    - Cash flow forecast
    - Liquidity analysis
    - Risk assessment
    - Recommendations

Required Output Elements

| Element | Requirement | |---------|-------------| | Treasury Summary | Current position and highlights | | Cash Position | All accounts with reconciliation | | Forecast | Period-by-period projection | | Liquidity Analysis | Runway and ratios | | Risk Assessment | Identified risks and mitigations | | Recommendations | Actionable next steps |

Phase 4: Liquidity Analysis

MANDATORY: Assess liquidity comprehensively

Liquidity Metrics

| Metric | Formula | Threshold | |--------|---------|-----------| | Cash Runway | Cash / Monthly Burn | >6 months | | Current Ratio | Current Assets / Current Liabilities | >1.5x | | Quick Ratio | (CA - Inventory) / CL | >1.0x | | Cash Ratio | Cash / Current Liabilities | >0.5x |

Stress Testing

| Scenario | Description | |----------|-------------| | Base Case | Expected forecast | | Delayed Receipts | AR delayed 30 days | | Accelerated Payments | AP paid early | | Revenue Shortfall | 10-20% revenue decline | | Combined Stress | Multiple adverse factors |

Phase 5: Risk Identification

MANDATORY: Document all cash flow risks

Risk Categories

| Category | Examples | |----------|----------| | Collection Risk | Customer concentration, aging | | Payment Risk | Vendor demands, timing | | Operational Risk | Seasonality, cyclicality | | Financing Risk | Covenant compliance, renewal | | FX Risk | Currency exposure |

Risk Assessment Framework

| Element | Documentation | |---------|---------------| | Risk description | Clear statement | | Probability | High/Medium/Low | | Impact | Quantified if possible | | Mitigation | Specific action |

Pressure Resistance

See shared-patterns/pressure-resistance.md for universal pressures.

Cash Flow-Specific Pressures

| Pressure Type | Request | Agent Response | |---------------|---------|----------------| | "Use yesterday's balance" | "Treasury needs current data. I'll get today's position." | | "Skip the forecast, just need position" | "Position without forecast lacks context. I'll include projections." | | "Estimate the AR collections" | "Collections forecast needs AR aging basis. I'll use actual data." | | "We never have liquidity issues" | "Past performance ≠ future results. I'll assess current risk." |

Anti-Rationalization Table

See shared-patterns/anti-rationalization.md for universal anti-rationalizations.

Cash Flow-Specific Anti-Rationalizations

| Rationalization | Why It's WRONG | Required Action | |-----------------|----------------|-----------------| | "Cash is cash, simple analysis" | Cash has many components | ANALYZE by category | | "Forecast is same as last month" | Each forecast is independent | BUILD fresh forecast | | "We always collect in 45 days" | Actual may differ | USE actual aging | | "Covenant is not close" | Still needs monitoring | CALCULATE covenant |

Execution Report

Upon completion, report:

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Duration | Xm Ys | | Accounts Reconciled | N | | Forecast Periods | N | | Risks Identified | N | | Recommendations | N | | Result | COMPLETE/PARTIAL |

Quality Indicators

| Indicator | Status | |-----------|--------| | Position same-day | YES/NO | | All accounts included | YES/NO | | Forecast documented | YES/NO | | Risks assessed | YES/NO | | Covenants calculated | YES/NO |