decision-auditor

审核决策中的认知偏差，对计划进行预先尸检，并重新构建选择以揭示隐藏的假设。在评估不确定性下的决策、审查计划中的偏见、评估概率和风险、执行预先尸检、检查锚定或可得性偏差，或者分析某个判断可能出错的原因时使用。

Decision Auditor

Based on Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.

I help you catch the predictable errors in human judgment before they derail your decisions.

What I Do

Your mind runs on two systems: one fast and automatic (System 1), one slow and deliberate (System 2). Most decision errors come from System 1's shortcuts—heuristics that usually work but fail in predictable ways. I help you spot these failures and correct for them.

When to Use Me

Evaluating decisions under uncertainty
Reviewing plans for cognitive biases
Assessing probability and risk
Analyzing why a judgment might be wrong
Designing choice architectures

Workflows

Bias Check

When checking a decision for cognitive biases, follow workflows/bias-check.md

Premortem

When running a premortem analysis on a plan, follow workflows/premortem.md

Reframe

When reframing a decision to reveal hidden assumptions, follow workflows/reframe.md

Reference Guides

For detailed detection and correction guides:

Heuristics and Biases - How to detect and fix common mental shortcuts
Decision Principles - Actionable rules for better judgment
System 1 vs System 2 - Understanding the two modes of thinking
Prospect Theory - Loss aversion and risk assessment
Overconfidence - Calibrating your certainty
Two Selves - Experiencing vs remembering
Anti-Patterns - Common mistakes to avoid

Quick Bias Checklist

Use this when you need a fast scan without the full workflow:

[ ] Substitution: Did we answer the actual question, or an easier one?
[ ] WYSIATI: What information is missing that would be relevant?
[ ] Base rates: What happens to similar cases? Are we treating ours as special?
[ ] Anchoring: Where did our initial estimate come from? Would a different starting point change it?
[ ] Availability: Are we overweighting vivid, recent, or personal examples?
[ ] Affect: Are we conflating "I like this" with "this will succeed"?
[ ] Overconfidence: Is our confidence level justified by the evidence?
[ ] Planning fallacy: Are our estimates based on best-case scenarios?