Forecasting Techniques

Metadata

• Name: forecasting
• Description: Quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods
• Triggers: forecast, projection, prediction, demand planning, trend analysis

Instructions

Apply appropriate forecasting techniques for $ARGUMENTS.

Framework

Forecasting Methods

| Method | Best For | Time Horizon | Accuracy | |--------|----------|--------------|----------| | Moving Average | Stable demand | Short | Medium | | Exponential Smoothing | Trending data | Short-Medium | High | | Regression | Causal relationships | Medium-Long | High | | Scenario Planning | Uncertain environment | Long | Medium | | Delphi Method | Expert consensus | Long | Medium |

Output

## Forecast: [Subject]

### Method Selection

**Chosen Method**: [Method name]
**Rationale**: [Why this method]

### Historical Data

| Period | Actual | Forecast | Error |
|--------|--------|----------|-------|
| Q1 | 100 | - | - |
| Q2 | 110 | 105 | +5 |
| Q3 | 115 | 112 | +3 |
| Q4 | 120 | 118 | +2 |

### Forecast Results

| Period | Forecast | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | Confidence |
|--------|----------|-------------|-------------|------------|
| Q1 Next | 125 | 118 | 132 | 90% |
| Q2 Next | 130 | 120 | 140 | 85% |
| Q3 Next | 135 | 122 | 148 | 80% |

### Assumptions

1. [Assumption 1]
2. [Assumption 2]
3. [Assumption 3]

### Risks

| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| [Risk 1] | Medium | High | [Action] |
| [Risk 2] | Low | Medium | [Action] |

Tips

• Use multiple methods for validation
• Document assumptions clearly
• Update forecasts with new data
• Consider seasonality