微信扫一扫The Historian Decision-Making Model
Overview
A process for improving decision quality by excavating and analyzing organization history to understand the context of past failures before charting a new path.
Core principle: Learn from mistakes you didn't personally live through.
The Process
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│ 1. EXCAVATE │
│ Research past decisions and outcomes │
│ Talk to long-tenured employees │
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│ 2. CONTEXTUALIZE │
│ Analyze "Why" decisions were made at that time │
│ What was the environment/constraints? │
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│ 3. IDENTIFY BAGGAGE │
│ Map internal resistance and emotional blockers │
│ "We tried that before" = baggage signal │
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│ 4. FORMULATE HYPOTHESIS │
│ Create strategy informed by historical context │
│ Address what was different then vs. now │
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│ 5. DECIDE & ITERATE │
│ Commit to direction without needing 100% certainty │
│ Learn from results │
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Key Principles
| Principle | Description | |-----------|-------------| | Excavate actively | Don't assume you know the past | | Context matters | Same idea can fail or succeed based on timing | | Baggage is real | Emotional weight blocks rational evaluation | | Commit anyway | History informs but doesn't dictate |
Common Mistakes
- Ignoring "baggage" associated with old ideas
- Making decisions without understanding historical context
- Assuming "we tried that" means it can never work
Source: Anneka Gupta (Rubrik CPO) via Lenny's Podcast