Momentum Polymarket Trader

An automated trading skill that executes trades on Polymarket based on price momentum and market trend signals.

Features

• 🎯 Automatically monitors opportunity markets on Polymarket
• 📊 Analyzes price momentum and trend signals
• ⚠️ Built-in risk management and flip-flop detection
• 🔄 Auto-redeems winnings from resolved markets
• 📝 Detailed reasoning logs for every trade

How It Works

This skill runs every 15 minutes and:

1. Fetches Market Briefing - Gets current opportunity markets from AION API
2. Risk Check - Checks for risk alerts; pauses trading if any exist
3. Market Analysis - For each candidate market:
   • Fetches market context and trading discipline data
   • Calculates price momentum indicators
   • Evaluates trading edge
4. Executes Trades - Trades when positive edge is found with no warnings
5. Auto-Redeems - Periodically redeems winnings from resolved markets

Remixable Template

This is a customizable template. The default signal is based on simple price momentum — you can replace it with:

• Different technical indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.)
• Machine learning model predictions
• External data sources (news, social media sentiment, etc.)
• Custom market scoring algorithms

The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, order execution, position management, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha — just replace the calculate_signal() function.

Configuration

Required Environment Variables

• AION_API_KEY - Your AION SDK API key (get from https://pm-t1.bxingupdate.com/agents)

Optional Environment Variables

• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY - Only needed for external-wallet self-custody trading
• POLYGON_RPC_URL - Custom Polygon RPC endpoint (optional)
• MAX_POSITION_SIZE - Maximum position per market (default: 10 USDC)
• MIN_EDGE_THRESHOLD - Minimum edge threshold for trading (default: 0.05, i.e., 5%)

Running Modes

Dry-run Mode (Default)

python momentum_trader.py

This simulates trades without executing real orders.

Live Trading Mode

python momentum_trader.py --live

⚠️ Warning: This executes trades with real funds!

Customizing Signals

Edit the calculate_signal() function in momentum_trader.py to implement your trading strategy:

def calculate_signal(market_data, context):
    """
    Replace this function to implement your custom signal logic
    
    Returns:
    - side: "yes" or "no" or None (no trade)
    - confidence: confidence level between 0-1
    - reasoning: human-readable trade rationale
    """
    # Your custom logic here
    pass

Risk Management

This skill includes multiple layers of protection:

1. Flip-flop detection - Avoids frequent position reversals
2. Slippage estimation - Reduces trade size in high-slippage markets
3. Risk alert checks - Pauses trading when account-level risks are detected
4. Position limits - Maximum exposure per market
5. Edge validation - Only trades when expected edge exceeds threshold

Monitoring & Logs

Skill output includes:

• Risk status summary
• Decision for each market (TRADE, HOLD, SKIP)
• Position changes and order updates
• Trade execution results

Example Output

======================================================================
Skill: momentum-polymarket-trader
Venue: polymarket (USDC.e)

Risk alerts:
- none

Decisions:
- "Will Bitcoin reach $100K in 2025?": HOLD (edge too small +2.1%)
- "2026 US Midterm Elections": TRADE YES size=5 reason=momentum signal +7.8%
- "OpenAI valuation over $300B?": SKIP (flip-flop warning)

Order updates:
- cancelled ORDER_123 (stale)
- new order ORDER_456 submitted

Auto-redemptions:
- redeemed market MKT_789: tx=0xabc...def

Technical Details

• Polling interval: 15 minutes (with random jitter to avoid synchronization)
• Dependencies: aion-sdk, requests
• Python version: 3.8+
• Network: Polygon (USDC.e)

Troubleshooting

"No opportunity markets found"

Check your AION agent settings for risk thresholds and market filters.

"Invalid API key"

Ensure the AION_API_KEY environment variable is set correctly.

"Insufficient balance"

Check your wallet balance at https://pm-t1.bxingupdate.com/agents

Next Steps

1. Install skill: npx clawhub@latest install momentum-polymarket-trader
2. Configure your AION_API_KEY
3. Test in dry-run mode
4. Customize signal logic
5. Switch to live mode (use caution!)

License

MIT License - free to use, modify, and distribute.