Whale Momentum Trader

Strategy Overview

This skill monitors the top-performing wallets on Polymarket (via the predicting.top leaderboard) and detects momentum consensus -- when multiple whale wallets independently enter the same market on the same side within a short time window.

The core insight: when 2+ top-performing traders independently decide to buy the same side of a market within 48 hours, they are likely reacting to the same underlying information edge. This convergence is a stronger signal than any single whale trade.

Signal Logic

1. Fetch leaderboard    -> Top N wallets from predicting.top
2. Fetch activity       -> Recent trades per wallet from Polymarket data API
3. Build momentum map   -> For each market: count YES wallets vs NO wallets
4. Filter signals       -> Markets with MIN_WHALES+ wallets on the same side
5. Match markets        -> Find corresponding Simmer market for each signal
6. Boosted signal       -> Conviction-based sizing + whale consensus boost
7. Trade                -> Place order if whale direction aligns with threshold signal

Edge Thesis

Independent whale agreement is a strong conviction signal because:

Information asymmetry: Top leaderboard wallets consistently outperform. They have better information pipelines, faster reaction times, and deeper domain expertise.
Independence filter: Two wallets trading the same direction within 48 hours suggests they are both reacting to the same underlying catalyst, not copying each other.
Consensus premium: A single whale trade could be noise or portfolio rebalancing. Multiple whales agreeing filters out idiosyncratic trades and isolates genuine conviction.
Timing edge: By monitoring activity within a lookback window (default 48h), the skill catches momentum before it fully reprices into the market.

The conviction boost formula rewards stronger consensus:

2 whales: +15% conviction boost
3 whales: +30% conviction boost
4+ whales: +45-50% conviction boost (capped at 50%)

Critically, the skill only trades when the whale direction aligns with the threshold signal (YES below YES_THRESHOLD, NO above NO_THRESHOLD). This prevents chasing whale momentum into already-priced territory.

Remix Ideas

Sector filtering: Only follow whale consensus in specific market categories (crypto, politics, sports) where whale edge is strongest.
Volume weighting: Weight the momentum signal by USD volume, not just wallet count. A whale putting $50K in is a stronger signal than one putting $500.
Decay weighting: Apply time decay to activities -- trades from 2 hours ago are stronger signals than trades from 46 hours ago.
Anti-correlation filter: If whale A and whale B historically trade opposite directions, discount their "agreement" (they may be the same entity hedging).
Leaderboard recency: Weight wallets by their recent performance (last 30 days) rather than all-time rank.

Safety

| Control | Setting | |---------|---------| | Default mode | Paper (sim) -- zero financial risk | | Live trading | Requires explicit --live flag | | Max position | $40 per trade (tunable) | | Min trade | $5 floor prevents trivial orders | | Max positions | 8 concurrent (tunable) | | Spread gate | Skips markets with spread > 10% | | Days gate | Skips markets resolving in < 5 days | | Flip-flop guard | SDK context check prevents reversals | | Slippage guard | Skips if slippage > 15% | | Alignment check | Only trades when whale direction matches threshold signal |

Tunables

| Env Var | Default | Description | |---------|---------|-------------| | SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max position size in USD | | SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Min trade size in USD | | SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 3000 | Min market volume in USD | | SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.10 | Max bid-ask spread (10%) | | SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 5 | Min days until resolution | | SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent positions | | SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES below this probability | | SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Buy NO above this probability | | SIMMER_MIN_WHALES | 2 | Min whales agreeing for a signal | | SIMMER_LOOKBACK_HOURS | 48 | Time window for momentum detection | | SIMMER_LEADERBOARD_LIMIT | 15 | Number of top wallets to track |

Dependencies

simmer-sdk: Simmer trading SDK for market discovery, trading, and context checks.
predicting.top API: Public leaderboard API for top Polymarket wallet addresses.
Polymarket Data API: Public API for fetching wallet trading activity.

No additional pip packages required beyond simmer-sdk. All HTTP calls use Python's built-in urllib.