Polymarket AI Divergence Scanner

Surface markets where Simmer's AI-driven price diverges from Polymarket.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• Find trading opportunities based on AI vs market disagreement
• Scan for high-divergence plays
• See where Simmer's AI is bullish/bearish vs Polymarket
• Understand AI pricing differences

Quick Commands

# Show all divergences (>5% default)
python ai_divergence.py

# Quick status
python scripts/status.py

# Only high-divergence (>15%)
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# Bullish only (AI > Polymarket)
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Bearish only (AI < Polymarket)
python ai_divergence.py --bearish

# Top opportunities summary
python ai_divergence.py --opportunities

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Markets: GET /api/sdk/markets

Configuration

| Setting | Environment Variable | Default | Description | |---------|---------------------|---------|-------------| | API Key | SIMMER_API_KEY | (required) | Your Simmer SDK key | | API URL | SIMMER_API_URL | https://api.simmer.markets | API base URL |

How It Works

Each market has:

• current_probability — Simmer's AI-influenced price
• external_price_yes — Polymarket's price
• divergence — The difference (Simmer - Polymarket)

High divergence = potential alpha if the AI is right.

Interpreting Signals

| Divergence | Meaning | Action | |------------|---------|--------| | > +10% | AI more bullish | Consider BUY YES | | < -10% | AI more bearish | Consider BUY NO | | ±5-10% | Mild divergence | Monitor | | < ±5% | Aligned | No signal |

Example Output

🔮 AI Divergence Scanner
===========================================================================
Market                                     Simmer     Poly      Div   Signal
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?        14.2%   48.5%  -34.3%   🔴 SELL
What will be the top AI model this mon     17.9%    1.0%  +16.9%    🟢 BUY

💡 Top Opportunities (>10% divergence)
===========================================================================
📌 Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
   AI says BUY NO (AI: 14% vs Market: 48%)
   Divergence: -34.3% | Resolves: 2026-07-31

Example Conversations

"Where does the AI disagree with Polymarket?" → python ai_divergence.py

"Any bullish opportunities?" → python ai_divergence.py --bullish --min 10

"What's the AI's highest conviction play?" → python ai_divergence.py --opportunities

Troubleshooting

"SIMMER_API_KEY not set" → Get key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab

"No markets match filters" → Lower --min threshold or remove directional filters