Stock Fundamental Analysis

Use this skill to produce disciplined, evidence-based fundamental analysis for public companies.

Core Rules

• Do not provide personalized financial advice or guaranteed predictions.
• Always separate facts, assumptions, and opinion.
• Prefer primary sources: 10-K, 10-Q, annual reports, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts, and official guidance.
• Use recent market data only after checking live sources when available.
• If data is missing or stale, say so clearly.
• Never rely on one metric. Combine business quality, financial quality, valuation, and risk.

Default Workflow

1. Clarify scope if needed

   • Ticker / company / market
   • Time horizon: short-term event, 1-3 year view, long-term compounder
   • Output depth: quick scan, full report, comparison, valuation only

2. Company snapshot

   • Business model and revenue drivers
   • Segments / geography / customer concentration
   • Industry position and competitors
   • Key growth catalysts

3. Financial statement review

   • Revenue growth and quality
   • Gross margin, operating margin, net margin trends
   • Free cash flow and cash conversion
   • Debt, liquidity, dilution, working capital
   • ROIC / ROE / asset efficiency when relevant

4. Business quality assessment

   • Moat: brand, switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, regulation, distribution
   • Pricing power
   • Recurring revenue / repeat purchase behavior
   • Cyclicality and operating leverage
   • Management quality and capital allocation

5. Valuation

   • Use multiple methods where possible:
     • P/E, forward P/E
     • EV/EBITDA
     • EV/Sales for high-growth or early-profit companies
     • Price/FCF
     • DCF / owner earnings when useful
   • Compare to:
     • Own history
     • Peer group
     • Growth, margin, and risk profile
   • State whether valuation looks cheap, fair, expensive, or unclear.

6. Risks and red flags

   • Competitive pressure
   • Margin compression
   • Customer concentration
   • Debt refinancing
   • Regulatory / legal issues
   • Dilution / stock-based compensation
   • Accounting quality concerns
   • Macro, FX, commodity, and rate sensitivity

7. Conclusion

   • Bull case
   • Base case
   • Bear case
   • Key metrics to monitor
   • Final view: attractive / watchlist / avoid / insufficient data

Output Templates

Quick Fundamental Scan

# [Ticker] Fundamental Scan

## One-line view
[Concise conclusion]

## Business
- What it does:
- Revenue drivers:
- Competitive position:

## Financial quality
- Growth:
- Margins:
- Cash flow:
- Balance sheet:

## Valuation
- Current multiples:
- Peer / history comparison:
- Valuation view:

## Key risks
- 

## What to watch next
- 

## Bottom line
[Attractive / Watchlist / Avoid / Insufficient data]

Full Research Note

# [Company] ([Ticker]) Fundamental Analysis

## Executive Summary
- Rating-style view:
- Time horizon:
- Core thesis:
- Main uncertainty:

## Business Overview

## Industry and Competitive Position

## Financial Analysis
### Revenue
### Margins
### Cash Flow
### Balance Sheet
### Returns on Capital

## Management and Capital Allocation

## Valuation
### Multiple-based valuation
### DCF / owner earnings view, if useful
### Peer comparison

## Scenario Analysis
| Case | Key assumptions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | | |
| Base | | |
| Bear | | |

## Risks

## Monitoring Checklist

## Final View

Scoring Framework

Use a 0-5 score for each dimension when the user wants a rating.

| Dimension | Score Guide | |---|---| | Business quality | Moat, market position, recurring demand | | Growth | Revenue growth, TAM, reinvestment runway | | Profitability | Margins, ROIC, operating leverage | | Cash flow | FCF quality, conversion, capex intensity | | Balance sheet | Debt, liquidity, maturity risk | | Management | Capital allocation, guidance credibility, incentives | | Valuation | Price vs quality/growth/risk | | Risk | Lower score means higher risk |

Final score is not a buy signal. Explain the judgment behind each score.

When More Detail Is Needed

Read references/metrics.md for metric definitions and interpretation. Read references/red-flags.md when checking accounting quality or risk signals. Read references/valuation.md when building a more detailed valuation section.