World Cup 2026 Predictor

Use this skill to produce a disciplined, probability-based World Cup forecast from market structure and fresh news. Treat betting markets as information, not destiny: explain uncertainty, avoid guarantees, and never claim a result is certain.

This skill is intended for analytical forecasting and publishes under ClawHub's MIT-0 license terms. It does not place bets, guarantee outcomes, or present betting as income.

Language Policy

Match the user's language.

If the user writes in English, answer in English.
If the user writes in Chinese, answer in Chinese.
If the user mixes languages, use the dominant user language and keep market terms such as Asian handicap, 1X2, BTTS, moneyline, 亚盘, 欧赔, 美赔, and 水位 when they are the clearest terms.
Do not force Chinese section titles for English users, and do not force English section titles for Chinese users.
Source names, bookmaker names, team names, and odds formats may stay in their original language.

Fast Path

Determine the match scope: today, a named match, or all upcoming World Cup matches.
Browse for current kickoff time, venue, format, lineups/injuries/suspensions, and at least two odds sources with timestamps when possible.
Identify the odds format before interpreting it: European decimal 1X2, US moneyline, Asian handicap, Hong Kong water, Malay odds, Indo odds, exchange price, totals, BTTS, or correct score.
Separate markets: 90-minute 1X2/moneyline, qualification/to-lift, Asian handicap/spread, totals, BTTS, correct score, and major line movement.
Convert all comparable prices to rough implied probability, then read Asian handicap separately as cover/handicap information.
Apply the rules in references/market-rules.md and references/odds-formats.md.
Run scripts/forecast.py when the user supplies odds, or when you have gathered enough structured odds to pass as JSON.
If the user asks for pre-kickoff alerts, 播报, reminders, or 提醒, schedule a reminder or automation for kickoff minus 10 minutes when automation tools are available; otherwise provide an exact local reminder time and the analysis prompt to rerun.

Required Output Shape

For each match, use the same language as the user. Use these sections, translated naturally:

Conclusion / 结论: 90-minute 1X2 or 胜平负, advancement/qualification or 晋级/出线, over/under or 大小球, BTTS, and 1-3 scorelines.
Market Sources and Formats / 盘口来源与格式: name each source and label the format: European decimal odds/欧赔, US moneyline/美赔, Asian handicap/亚盘, Hong Kong odds/港赔, Malay odds/马来盘, Indo odds/印尼盘, exchange price/交易所, totals/大小球, BTTS.
Market Read / 盘口读法: explain ML/1X2 movement, qualification-market conflict, Asian handicap confirmation/failure, totals, BTTS, and whether the favorite is firm or drifting.
News Confirmation / 新闻确认: distinguish hard information from public/emotional news. Mention starting XI, injuries, rest, travel, weather, tactical matchup, and source timing.
Bookmaker/Capital View / 庄家/资本视角: say what the market appears to be protecting against: favorite win, small favorite win, draw/extra time, upset, over, under, or both teams to score.
Risk / 风险: list what would flip the forecast before kickoff.
Betting Window Note / 下注窗口提醒: if relevant, remind the user to re-check the live/pre-kickoff market 10 minutes before kickoff, and avoid presenting any pick as guaranteed profit.

Do not promise an "accurate prediction" or "guaranteed win." Use phrasing like "current best probability read," "current optimal probabilistic judgment," "当前最优概率判断," or "按临场盘口的最优推演."

10-Minute Pre-Kickoff Workflow

When asked to report or alert before kickoff:

Convert kickoff to the user's timezone and compute kickoff minus 10 minutes.
If an automation/reminder tool is available, create a one-time automation at that time with this prompt:

Use $world-cup-2026-predictor to refresh odds, lineup/news, and line movement for <match>; produce the final 10-minute pre-kickoff forecast in the user's language.
If automation tools are unavailable, return the exact reminder time and tell Codex to rerun the same skill at that time.
In the reminder run, re-fetch fresh odds and lineups. Do not reuse stale earlier odds except as the opening/previous line for movement comparison.

Data Discipline

Prefer official tournament pages for schedule and lineups, then major sportsbooks/odds aggregators for prices, then reliable news wires and team reporters for news.
Always include source links for current schedule, odds, and news.
If odds are unavailable or stale, state the gap and produce only a lower-confidence tactical/news forecast.
Track timestamps. "临场" should mean the most recent price close to kickoff, ideally within 60 minutes and especially the final 10-15 minutes.
Convert American, decimal, fractional, Hong Kong, Malay, and Indo odds into implied probability before comparing markets.
Never compare Asian handicap line movement as if it were 1X2. Use it to judge whether the favorite can cover, whether the underdog is protected, and whether moneyline strength is confirmed.
Remove or mention bookmaker margin when enough prices exist; otherwise treat implied probabilities as rough.

Using Bundled Resources

Read references/market-rules.md for the core market heuristics before making a forecast.
Read references/odds-formats.md when odds format, Asian handicap, or水位 conversion matters.
Use scripts/forecast.py --input <json> to turn gathered market data into a repeatable probability/risk scaffold.
Use scripts/kickoff_alerts.py to compute kickoff-minus-10 reminder times from a match list.

Safety Boundary

This skill can analyze markets and produce probabilistic forecasts. It must not guarantee wins, present betting as income, encourage chasing losses, or place bets for the user. Keep the final wording analytical and risk-aware.